The 2023 NBA Eastern Conference finals conclude with a must-see showdown on Memorial Day. The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat for Game 7 of the series at TD Garden in prime time on Monday. Boston lost the first three games of the series before winning the next three to set up the must-win matchup on both sides. Malcolm Brogdon (forearm) is listed as questionable for the Celtics after missing Game 6, while Gabe Vincent (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Heat.
Caesars Sportsbook lists Boston as the 7-point favorite for this 8:30 p.m. ET tipoff. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 203 in the latest Heat vs. Celtics odds. Before making any Celtics vs. Heat picks, you need to see the NBA playoff predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Heat vs. Celtics and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Celtics vs. Heat:
- Heat vs. Celtics spread: Celtics -7
- Heat vs. Celtics over/under: 203 points
- Heat vs. Celtics money line: Celtics -305, Heat +240
- MIA: The Heat are 21-27-1 against the spread in road games
- BOS: The Celtics are 29-22 against the spread in home games
- Heat vs. Celtics picks: See picks at SportsLine
Featured Game | Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat
Why the Heat can cover
Miami won’t be fazed by the atmosphere at TD Garden in Boston. The Heat are 2-1 in the building during the series, scoring more than 1.18 points per possession in those three games. Miami has a stellar 33.6% offensive rebound rate in games played in Boston, and the Celtics are also just 5-5 at home during the postseason. In addition, Miami is well-coached by Erik Spoelstra, and there were positive signs in Game 6 despite the loss.
The Heat committed only five turnovers in the game and were 14 of 30 from 3-point range. Miami struggled mightily inside the arc in a way that isn’t indicative of talent deficiency, and the Heat are scoring more than 1.16 points per possession in the playoffs. The Heat are also winning the turnover battle in the series, and Miami has a 30.2% offensive rebound rate against Boston that allows Miami to win the overall possession battle. See which team to pick here.
Why the Celtics can cover
Boston has been the better team on paper over the balance of the 2022-23 season, and the Celtics recaptured their stellar baseline of performance in the last three games. The Celtics out-scored the Heat by 10.5 points per 100 possessions across three straight wins and, in addition to outstanding defensive resistance, Boston’s offense was dominant. The Celtics scored 120.9 points per 100 possessions in the three wins, producing a 60.6% true shooting mark and 23.7 free throw attempts per game.
Boston took care of the ball beautifully, committing a turnover on fewer than 12% of possessions, and the Celtics also improved their overall physicality with a 29.1% offensive rebound rate and 16.0 second-chance points per game. Boston’s high-powered offense is averaging more than 1.17 points per possession during the entire postseason, and no team has a better true shooting percentage (59.9%) than Boston during the 2023 NBA playoffs. See which team to pick here.
How to make Celtics vs. Heat picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 216 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the model’s NBA playoff picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Heat vs. Celtics, and which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Celtics vs. Heat spread you need to jump on, all from the model that is 72-38 on top-rated NBA picks this season.
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- Heat vs. Celtics odds, prediction: 2023 NBA Eastern Conference finals picks, Game 7 bets by proven model
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