NBA Coach of the Yr odds: Why Thunder’s Mark Daigneault, Suns’ Frank Vogel are the perfect preseason picks

In any given season, there are solely eight believable candidates for Coach of the Yr. Realistically, that quantity is usually far smaller. Why? As a result of each Coach of the Yr winner since Scott Brooks in 2010 has led a top-four seed. This century, the one different coaches to win with out ending within the high 4 of their convention had been Doc Rivers with the Magic in 2000 and Hubie Brown with the Grizzlies in 2004.

That does not imply that ending fourth is often going to chop it, although. Between Brooks (Thunder) in 2010 and Mike Brown (Kings) final season, eight of the 12 winners coached No. 1 seeds. Nick Nurse (Raptors) coached a No. 2 seed in 2020, George Karl (Nuggets, 2013) and Mike D’Antoni (Rockets, 2017) received as No. 3 seeds and Tom Thibodeau (Knicks, 2021) received in fourth. Exclude shortened seasons and the typical Coach of the Yr over the previous 20 years has received a median of roughly 58 video games. The upper your seed, the higher your odds of successful this award. Listed below are a number of extra notes earlier than we dive into this season’s odds:

• Successful with no high seed means defying expectations. Brown received solely 48 video games final season, however he led the Kings to their first playoff berth in nearly 20 years. Thibodeau took over a Knicks group that spent seven straight years within the lottery and obtained them a top-four seed. For those who do not suppose a coach has a practical probability at a high seed, the one motive to wager on him is the assumption that he can overcome very low group expectations.
• Nobody has ever repeated as Coach of the Yr (sorry Mike Brown) however loads of coaches have received the award a number of instances. Three have received the award thrice, and eight extra have received it twice. When unsure, voters will usually belief a monitor file.
• Take this for what it is price, however the final two winners have come from the Western Convention, whereas the earlier 4 got here from the East. Does this essentially imply something? No. However the normal consensus throughout most of this century has been that the West has been the superior convention. This has slowly shifted in recent times. Whereas the West has received the final two championships, the East has had extra stability atop the standings. In different phrases, there was extra room for groups to develop and shock within the East when coaches like Dwane Casey, Mike Budenholzer and Nick Nurse had been successful their awards. Now, except for the Nuggets, there’s a lot uncertainty within the West that some candidate will nearly definitely emerge as a top-two seed. All of that is to say that when you really feel one convention is considerably weaker than the opposite, you will most likely discover a candidate or two to wager who can make the most of that weaker convention.

So with all of this in thoughts, listed below are Sam Quinn and Ameer Tyree’s high picks for Coach of the Yr.

All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook

The favorites

Coaches listed right here have odds now not than +1000

Quinn: With solely two coaches on this group from an odds perspective, our pickings are comparatively slim. Nevertheless, this award is notable for having denied its finest candidate. Erik Spoelstra, broadly thought to be the perfect coach within the NBA, has by no means received Coach of the Yr. You take a large threat when you wager him at +750. Miami was a play-in group a season in the past. And not using a Damian Lillard commerce, they will seemingly fall someplace in that vary this season. However when you suppose Lillard ultimately finds his method to Miami, or when you suppose this roster is best than it seems, wager Spoelstra. If it is shut, there will probably be voters that really feel he’s owed a trophy.

Our different candidate on this vary is Mark Daigneault, the favourite at +700. He’ll have loads of probabilities to win this award given his younger, proficient roster, however when you anticipate the Thunder to leap into 50-win territory, Daigneault is a stable selection even when his odds aren’t particularly worthwhile. He is a wonderful in-game coach and he is including a No. 2 total choose in Chet Holmgren that matches his roster completely. If his younger gamers develop as we assume they may, the Thunder might completely seed excessive sufficient for Daigneault to win the award.

Tyree: Whereas I am one of many individuals who imagine Spoelstra is arguably the NBA’s finest coach due to his potential to get outcomes no matter accidents and star energy on his roster, I can not see him competing for the award in 2023-24. Coach of the Yr has been determined lengthy earlier than both of his newest deep playoff runs and including a celebrity like Lillard does not actually enhance his case. Daigneault, however, has a particularly younger group that hasn’t made the playoffs in three years. Their division options the reigning champions they usually did not add confirmed game-changers to their roster like different contenders this offseason. Daigneault is my clear-cut high choose among the many choices with the perfect odds. Solely Mike Brown obtained extra votes final season.

The center of the pack

Coaches listed right here have odds between +1001 and +2000

Quinn: Cleveland has important vulnerabilities that may matter in a playoff setting, however the Cavaliers are ideally fitted to the common season. That they had the NBA’s No. 1 protection final season and may even be higher as Evan Mobley will get nearer to his prime. They ranked twenty fourth in 3-point makes an attempt final season, however added two high-end shooters in Max Strus and Georges Niang. Between Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, they may at all times have an All-Star-level shot-creator on the ground. This stuff result in regular-season wins, so J.B. Bickerstaff (+1500) is a stable selection right here.

A barely riskier selection could be Frank Vogel (+1400). His group lacks depth and is constructed round two injury-prone superstars. But when even two of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Devin Booker are wholesome in any given sport, Phoenix goes to attain a number of factors. Vogel, however, is among the many finest defensive coaches in basketball. He completed within the high three defensively in two of his three Lakers seasons and three of his 5 full Pacers seasons. For those who assume Phoenix’s expertise offers it a top-five offense and its teaching generates an above-average protection, the Suns needs to be well-positioned to win Vogel this award.

Tyree: Joe Mazzulla (+1100) completed third within the voting regardless of the Boston Celtics spectacular all-round play en path to a second-place end within the Japanese Convention. The then first-year head coach stepped proper into success. They went 11-5 in opposition to an Atlantic Division that seems to be getting weaker, so a first-place end could possibly be within the playing cards. Getting previous the Milwaukee Bucks could possibly be sufficient to place Mazzulla excessive.

I additionally see the attraction of Vogel. The previous Lakers coach received a championship within the bubble earlier than getting booted two seasons later and now has an opportunity to teach one of many league’s most proficient beginning teams. Scoring will come straightforward and his defensive thoughts might take the Suns excessive. Phoenix seems superb on paper, however weathering the storm by accidents and placing up a powerful file regardless of the group’s restricted depth might make Vogel’s efforts appear spectacular. 

Coaches listed right here have odds of at the very least +2001

Quinn: All the pieces that might have gone unsuitable for the Timberwolves final season wound up going unsuitable. Rudy Gobert was a troublesome match with Karl-Anthony Cities at first, after which Cities went on to play simply 29 video games. D’Angelo Russell precipitated locker room issues. Gobert even punched teammate Kyle Anderson. But this group nonetheless received 42 video games in a loaded Western Convention. Now Gobert has some extent guard he is extra conversant in in Mike Conley. Cities is presumably wholesome. Anthony Edwards simply had a star flip for Staff USA. Minnesota is primed for a serious enchancment subsequent season, and that makes Chris Finch (+2500) the perfect longshot on the board.

Willie Inexperienced (+2200) affords barely extra proof of idea, however comes with extra threat. The New Orleans Pelicans had been the No. 1 seed at one level final season. They simply could not keep wholesome sufficient to remain there. For those who’re trying to spherical out your portfolio with an “in the event that they keep wholesome” longshot, that is most likely the one. For those who do not suppose Zion Williamson can play 50 or 60 video games? Then you possibly can keep away.

Tyree: Accidents have persistently derailed Tyronn Lue’s (+2200) COY probabilities with the Los Angeles Clippers, however perhaps this would be the yr they get wholesome. They’ve all of the expertise on either side of the ball to beat any group on any given night time. Then there’s Lue’s creativity. Few groups are prepared to deploy the progressive defensive schemes Lue does. Even fewer will bench their total beginning 5 to generate completely different seems. Lue’s distinctive ways and can to win by any means crucial might assist him climb this yr’s record of contenders.

My favourite longshot by far is Jason Kidd (+3000), although. The Dallas Mavericks fell off in a serious approach final season by lacking the playoffs, however I can not see how any group with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving from Day One can fall in need of the postseason. Dallas added one of many league’s finest snipers in Seth Curry for when groups load up on Doncic. It additionally improved its defensive IQ and flexibility by bringing in Grant Williams. I believe the Mavericks might flip a number of heads by taking management of their division whereas Ja Morant serves a 25-game suspension.