The Orioles appeared to have the Rangers on the ropes. Gunnar Henderson reached within the backside of the ninth with a leadoff single, and with Jose LeClerc struggling to throw strikes to Aaron Hicks, it felt like Baltimore might be on the verge of mounting a Recreation 1 comeback down 3-2 to Texas within the American League Division Sequence.
Henderson stored trying again on the indicators, and on a 2-1 depend, he determined to take off with nobody out within the inning. Jonah Heim, who ranks in the 89th percentile within the majors in caught stealing above common, simply threw out Henderson because the pitch to Hicks was referred to as a ball, giving Baltimore its first out of the inning.
JONAH HIM 🔥
He caught Gunnar Henderson stealing within the ninth! pic.twitter.com/c8oOQyCGMI
— FOX Sports activities: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 7, 2023
Supervisor Brandon Hyde, who regarded visibly pissed off within the dugout after the caught stealing, gave a easy clarification after the sport for the try.
“Miscommunication there,” Hyde mentioned.
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Hicks wound up placing out over the following two pitches, then Adam Frazier grounded out to 3rd to finish the sport, with Baltimore falling 3-2 to Texas.
For his half, Henderson shouldn’t be a foul base-stealer. He was profitable on 10-of-13 makes an attempt to steal in 2023, and he ranks within the 86th percentile in sprint speed.
Nonetheless, the choice was questionable, if in actual fact anybody referred to as for that to occur. LeClerc had fallen behind to Hicks 3-1 with a runner on first, and would have been put able the place he needed to throw strikes or risking pushing the tying run into scoring place with nobody out. A profitable stolen base try, although probably placing Baltimore a single away from a tie sport, additionally may need been a moot level if LeClerc threw a ball on the following pitch to Hicks.
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The numbers additionally present the danger in trying a stolen base in that state of affairs. The win likelihood for a house group trailing by a run within the backside of the ninth with a runner on first and nobody out is 33.4 %, whereas the win likelihood for a house group with one out and nobody on plummets to 11.2 %, according to FanGraphs. If the steal had been profitable, the percentages would have gone as much as 44.4 % for the house group.
Whereas an 11 % improve in win likelihood is important, a 22 % lower in win likelihood is detrimental.
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The Orioles aren’t out of it but. Dropping Recreation 1 at house will not assist their probabilities, however they nonetheless have one other house sport on Sunday earlier than heading to Arlington for Recreation 3 on Tuesday.