The Maple Leafs Have a Clear Path to the Trade Deadline

The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to be active at the 2023 trade deadline. After Auston Matthews’ injury, their focus should be up front.

The Toronto Maple Leafs don’t need another defenseman. 

They never did – even when Jake Muzzin went down in the first week of the season, never to return, and was followed by the likes of Morgan Rielly, T.J. Brodie (who finds himself on the shelf again these days), Rasmus Sandin, Jordie Benn, Victor Mete and Mac Hollowell. 

Even without three of their four top defenders gone for large stretches at a time, the Maple Leafs found ways to make it work. Young players stepped in and stepped up, veterans like Mark Giordano and Justin Holl picked the perfect time to play their best hockey of the season, and Toronto’s goaltending duo of Ilya Samsonov and Matt Murray stole games they otherwise probably shouldn’t have. 

It wasn’t a sustainable plan, of course. But it worked just long enough for Rielly, Brodie, Sandin and Benn to get healthy and re-balance the lineup. Problem solved. 

The Maple Leafs learned a valuable lesson from that stretch, too – they have the defensive depth to stay afloat even when their ship takes on water. 

The same cannot be said up front. 

Don’t get me wrong, this isn’t to say the Maple Leafs are an ineffective offensive team. Their 175 goals in 52 games put them sixth in the NHL at the moment, averaging out to an impressive 3.37 goals-for per game courtesy of the core four – Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner – each being on pace to finish with at least 30 goals. 

That the marquee players are leading the way to the extent they are is good news – but it’s also expected. That quartet earns more than $40 million combined annually to do precisely what they have to this point. 

But now, Matthews is out, sidelined for a minimum of three weeks with a knee injury. That quartet is now a tripod, with arguably its most potent piece ripped out of the equation. 

The cracks have begun to show in the early going. 

While Tavares has stepped in admirably to fill that vacant top-line center role – one he’s more or less played throughout his entire career, anyway – the hole at 2C is now abundantly gaping. It’s a problem the Maple Leafs attempted to fill initially with rookie Pontus Holmberg in their first sans-Matthews contest, ending in a 5-2 loss to the Ottawa Senators at home in one of their worst performances of the season. 

While Holmberg has been arguably the most pleasant surprise of the season for Toronto to this point, that was never going to work long-term, and it didn’t even hold up in the short term. 

So, Sheldon Keefe and his staff have pivoted, running Alex Kerfoot at 2C for the club’s next two games. That configuration can work in a vacuum – Kerfoot has actually put up some decent underlying numbers in that role so far, small sample size notwithstanding – but these Maple Leafs have dreams of contenting. And dreams of such grandeur require them to beat the Boston Bruins, who blew the doors off the club in their own house on Wednesday night while limiting Toronto to just one even-strength goal. 

With all due respect, a Cup contender does not have Kerfoot in their top six, regardless of their injury situation. It’s not fair to him, frankly. Prior to his promotion, Kerfoot was slotting in on the fourth line. At wing. The guy has been given ample opportunity over his four years in Toronto to prove he’s a capable bottom-six center and hasn’t passed those tests. Which is fine – the Leafs should know who Kerfoot is at this point: a useful third-or-fourth-line utility guy. 

For a second-line center, there must be another way. 

Thankfully, there is – trade for a forward. It’s as simple as that. 

Bo Horvat, a 27-year-old team captain on pace for nearly 60 goals this season, got dealt for a prospect, a protected first-round pick, and a middle-six winger. If that’s the going rate for elite offensive weapons as the deadline approaches, the Maple Leafs need to not merely throw their hat into the ring but shoot it in there with a bazooka. 

The obvious target is San Jose Sharks winger Timo Meier, who comes in one year younger than Horvat and carries a slightly better offensive track record but is set to hit restricted free agency this summer. The extra year of team control seemingly makes Meier a more expensive asset. That’s usually how these things work. But his $10-million qualifying offer will likely come in around what Horvat could command as a UFA when he goes to market, which more or less evens the playing field. 

If the package to nabbing the deadline’s big fish equates to something slightly more lucrative than what the Islanders paid for Horvat, Dubas & Co. need to seriously consider that. 

Of course, there are other medium-sized fish up for grabs, too. Philadelphia’s Travis Konecny would be a perfect addition to Toronto’s top six, adding a potent offensive threat with playoff-friendly sandpaper who happens to be under contract for the next two seasons at a $5.5-million cap hit. 

Basically, look around the league at any forwards on expiring contracts whose teams are out of the playoffs. Chances are, the Leafs should kick their tires. 

Vladimir Tarasenko would be a terrific addition to the top six and power play. Ryan O’Reilly would solidify that center depth and give the Leafs a Matthews-Tavares-O’Reilly-Kampf quartet down the middle when everyone is healthy. 

Perhaps Connor Garland, at a retained salary, could be worth plucking from Vancouver? A 26-year-old right-shot, middle-six winger still producing at half a point per game in a supposed “down year” could end Toronto’s rotating cast of second-line wing placeholders. 

There are options aplenty as the trade deadline grows larger on the horizon. But one thing is for certain: If the Leafs intend to go hunting, their focus should be nowhere but up front. 

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